Housing supply constraints cost the US economy a measurable share of output

What was held

That constrained supply lowered US growth 1964–2009 by roughly 36% under perfect mobility or 14% under imperfect mobility — one of three figures sizing the problem on the landing page.

What was done

Chased the figure to its source.

What came back

Two things were wrong. The 36 / 14 pair is not the paper's own result — it comes from compounding annual rates, which yields level effects rather than growth forgone. And a peer-reviewed Comment (Greaney, AEJ: Macro, April 2026) had replicated the paper, documented errors in its code, found the counterfactual as coded lowers output, and reported a corrected effect roughly two orders of magnitude smaller.

What it cost

A headline figure on the first screen, removed rather than re-stated with a longer caveat — an honest version needed three sentences and the first screen could not afford them. E-054 now says no figure from it is quotable as settled.

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